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CapCo hit by sluggish sales at Earls Court as prime London falters

Sales of new apartments at the Earls Court development have fallen off a cliff this year
February 25, 2016

Capital & Counties (CAPC) delivered another robust performance in 2015, pushing adjusted net asset value (NAV) ahead by 16 per cent to 361p a share. But the share price has done badly since the start of the new year, falling nearly 30 per cent.

IC TIP: Sell at 325p

Currently spooking investors is the 70 acres of land at Fulham and Chelsea which was once the Earls Court exhibition centre. In a joint venture with Transport for London, in which CapCo has a 63 per cent share, the plan is to build 7,500 new homes; create 10,000 new jobs and generally help to meet London's chronic housing shortage. The first phase, released in 2014, saw 204 flats sold in just five weeks.

In the second phase, launched in September last year, just 28 flats were sold in five months. To blame? Increased stamp duty, lower investment from foreign buyers and prices up at £1,500 per sq ft: factors the company itself concedes when referring to challenges in the residential market.

On the other hand, the Covent Garden estate rose in value by 16 per cent to £2bn, and there were 74 new lettings and renewals agreed at 11 per cent above estimated rental value as at December 2014.

Analysts at Peel Hunt are forecasting adjusted NAV of 365p a share at the end of 2016.

CAPITAL & COUNTIES PROPERTIES (CAPC)
ORD PRICE:325.4pMARKET VALUE:£2.73bn
TOUCH:324.4-325.1p12-MONTH HIGH:475pLOW: 325p
DIVIDEND YIELD:0.5%TRADING PROPERTIES:£15.5m
DISCOUNT TO NAV:7%NET DEBT: 17%
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES:£3.87bn*

Year to 31 DecNet asset value (p)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201116216223.91.5
201219621929.91.5
201323934744.11.5
201430045055.61.5
201534946051.31.5
% change+16+2-8-

Ex-div: 26 May

Payment: 21 Jun

*Includes joint ventures