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Can you benefit from the fear of a Brexit?

Investors who hold their nerve could be in a good position when uncertainty clears
March 2, 2016

Opportunities could be opening up for investors willing to hold their nerve as the debate about whether Britain will leave the EU intensifies.

While bookmakers only put the Leave campaign's chances of success at 1 in 3, the potential for a shock result in the June referendum has been playing havoc with markets.

Sterling has weakened to levels against the dollar not seen since the financial crisis ($1.39). UK government bonds - arguably a 'safe haven' investment during troubled times - have also come under scrutiny after data by the Bank of England found overseas investors sold a net £6.3bn of UK gilts in January - the fifth highest amount since 1990. Not only this, but the sales came after net gilt purchases by overseas investors of £29.6bn in the last quarter of 2015, the highest on record.

But what could the impact of these movements be on portfolios and should investors be tilting towards a certain direction?

 

Exporter boost

Tom Becket, chief investment officer at wealth manager Psigma Investment Management, said he would expect any major negative market reaction to a Brexit to be "most apparent in our currency". But Mr Becket said investors could mitigate this potential hurdle, like he had in his portfolios.

"We do not envisage currency weakness as being an issue for our portfolios, not least given the global focus of many of our investments and specific companies," he said. "In fact, currency weakness is a blessing for our international focus and could actually benefit the stressed manufacturers that remain in the UK."

Mark Martin, who runs the top-performing Neptune UK Mid Cap fund, said while a Brexit was not his base case outcome, the very possibility of Britain leaving the EU is "likely to result in further volatility, and opportunities, in the near term".

The manager said while the market might be most concerned about the UK's domestic economy amid the uncertainty created by the referendum, he thought the country's stock market offered "numerous attractions to international and domestic investors with a long-term mindset".

"Any weakness in sterling will increase the attraction of UK companies - and their products - to overseas buyers," he said. “With this in mind, recent underperformance by mid and small caps looks overdone. Indiscriminate selling across all markets has undoubtedly provided good buying opportunities in certain sectors and individual stocks." Mr Martin cited Victrex (VCT) and Paypoint (PAY) as companies he had the most conviction in and had therefore topped up recently.

 

Full bore

Another issue is the fear about what borrowing costs in the UK would do. Psigma's Mr Becket said a potential Brexit could "easily cause international investors to assess their reasons for holding UK gilts". Some such investors - notably sovereign wealth funds - may already be under pressure to sell some assets due to the plummeting oil price so heightened fears about the UK could see gilts higher up the list of things to jettison.

The manager said government bonds could also feel the pressure if, as expected, sterling weakens significantly and inflation begins to be imported. He is holding various inflation-linked fixed income assets to mitigate such a risk.

The concern about borrowing costs is also shared by Alastair Irvine, a member of Jupiter Asset Management's Merlin multi-manager fund range team, although on a company basis as much as on a government one.

"Regardless of what happens to official interest rates, money markets would probably seek a higher rate of return to take account of the additional perceived risk so it is likely that the cost of borrowing for business could rise," he said. As such, investors in companies with high levels of debt may want to analyse the interest rate being paid on it and consider the impact of rising debt costs.