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Terror strike hits travel sector

Airline stocks fall further than market with some dropping more steeply than in the wake of the November Paris attacks
March 23, 2016

Travel stocks were knocked by the terrorist blasts at a Belgian airport and metro station this week with some falling further than after the Paris attacks last year.

Airline stocks including Easyjet (EZJ), Ryanair (RYA) and British Airways and Iberia owner International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) took the brunt after falling more steeply than the broader market on the day, while rail-related stocks including Go-Ahead (GOG) and National Express (NEX) were also dented.

The attacks, firstly at Brussels' Zaventem airport and then the city's Maelbeek station, killed dozens of people collectively and came just a day after Belgium’s interior minister, Jan Jambon, warned that jihadis could be plotting a counter attack in response to the arrest last week of Salah Abdeslam, a suspected participant in November’s Paris attacks.

On the day of the incident, Thomas Cook (TCG) had issued a trading statement which, alongside the news of the attacks, sent the stock down as much as 6 per cent. The group acknowledged it had only sold 90 per cent of its winter holidays and that its summer breaks were only 40 per cent sold, albeit at higher prices.

Chief executive Peter Fankhauser said: "We know that customers want a summer holiday but we can see that some are leaving it later to book this year as they consider their options."

The company last year had to rebalance capacity due to higher demand for flights to Spain in the wake of bombings in the Turkish capital Ankara in October. There is now the possibility that it - and its rivals - might have to further adapt fleet locations and prices to encourage demand.

Belgium is an important market for other airline groups too, including Tui AG (TUI), which said last year it would aim to roll out its brand in the country as part of a multi-location plan in the coming years. It had also decided to follow government advice and halt flights to Tunisia from Belgium, following a terror attack in the African country last year.

The European nation is also firmly on the radar of budget carrier Ryanair, which in its last update said Belgium was one of the markets it was looking to "grow capacity quickly" in.

The latest attacks, alongside the ongoing debate about whether to leave the EU and a weak sterling making foreign trips for domestic travellers potentially more expensive, make it likely 2016 will be a tough year for the travel sector.

John Wyn-Evans, head of investment strategy at Investec Wealth & Investment, said those travel and leisure groups with a greater exposure to the UK might be the ones to benefit from a cheaper pound, with British travellers more likely to take holidays at home.