By popular demand we’re returning our Coppock indicators in full to the magazine, to be published every month. This latest update covers the last two months, March and April, and as it happens there has been little recent change in the major markets the system covers.
That means that the overall picture painted by the Coppock indicators remains resolutely bearish. With the exception of Greece’s Athex Composite, which turned positive in April, all European indicators are saying Sell. The same is largely true of North America, where only Canada’s TSX is saying Buy.
That latter signal is perhaps a reflection of the recent recovery in commodity prices, given the TSX’s commodity-heavy status. The commodity indices we track – the S&P Goldman Sachs Total Return indices – gave several Buy signals in January and February, and have continued to recover lost ground since, as the chart below shows – Gold has risen from $1,118 to $1,279 an ounce since its end-of-January Buy signal, a 14 per cent gain; Brent crude, now at $45 a barrel, has gained a quarter since the February Buy signal. Gold’s rise in particular chimes with the bearish signals seen elsewhere on the Coppock system, as do recent unofficial Buys on US and Japanese government bonds.
Beyond commodities, Latin America is host to the only other notably bullish sentiment, with a new Buy signal on Brazil’s Bovespa and an unofficial Buy on Mexico’s Bolsa. After a dismal run the former has risen 40 per cent since bottoming in January, helped along by the oil price recovery (state-owned producer Petrobras has a huge weighting in the index) and the pending impeachment of its president Dilma Rousseff, which potentially opens the way for more business-friendly policies (see pages 48 and 55).
| North America | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Composite | 2.09 | -1.45 | -1.7 | -2.69 | SELL | Mar-14 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -1.04 | -4.25 | -3.89 | -4.26 | CANCEL BUY* | Apr-16 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 18.03 | 13 | 11.18 | 7.12 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 13.95 | 8.4 | 6.22 | 2.22 | SELL | Apr-14 |
| S&P/TSX | -18.69 | -21.06 | -21.6 | -21 | BUY* | Apr-16 |
| Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
| Bangkok SET | -22.93 | -24.63 | -24.81 | -24.26 | BUY* | Apr-16 |
| FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI | -17.79 | -17.6 | -16 | -15.07 | BUY | Feb-16 |
| FTSE China B35 | 33.11 | 18.96 | 6.58 | -4.38 | SELL | Jul-15 |
| Hang Seng | -13.66 | -21.24 | -27.07 | -30.83 | SELL | Jul-15 |
| Korea SE Composite | -1.02 | -2.4 | -3.01 | -3.6 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| Indonesia Jakarta Composite | -21.34 | -22.887 | -22.112 | -21.772 | BUY* | Mar-16 |
| Singapore Straits Times | -24.31 | -29.46 | -31.92 | -33.22 | SELL | May-15 |
| Taiwan SE Weighted | -16.71 | -18.96 | -19.63 | -21.39 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| Japan Topix | 29.47 | 17.75 | 8.25 | -1.71 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| Australia ASX 200 | -9.2 | -13.3 | -15.7 | -17.3 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| New ZealandNZ 50 | 11.64 | 11.22 | 13.09 | 14.68 | CANCEL SELL* | Mar-16 |
| South Africa JSE TOP 40 | 3.89 | 1.88 | 0.91 | 0.31 | SELL | Nov-15 |
| India Sensex | -4.9 | -12.26 | -15.61 | -18.18 | SELL | Mar-15 |
| South America | ||||||
| Mexico IPC (Bolsa) | 0.22 | -0.32 | 2.02 | 2.74 | CANCEL SELL* | Mar-16 |
| Brazil Bovespa | -29.54 | -31.62 | -27.78 | -21.81 | BUY* | Mar-16 |
| MSCI EM Latin America US% | -71.024 | -70.338 | -64.353 | -56.281 | BUY | Jan-16 |
| Europe/UK | ||||||
| Netherlands AEX | 14.1 | 7.94 | 2.75 | -2.9 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| Greece Athex Composite | -67.75 | -68.09 | -64.62 | -63.89 | BUY* | Mar-16 |
| ATX Austrian Traded | 5.3 | 1.81 | -0.33 | -3.56 | SELL* | Jan-16 |
| Belgium BEL 20 | 20.49 | 14.74 | 8.7 | 2.91 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| Germany Dax 30 | 15.69 | 7.54 | 1.15 | -5 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5.203 | -1.594 | -7.522 | -13.223 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| France Cac 40 | 13.59 | 8.31 | 2.59 | -3.09 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| FTSE 100 | -11.9 | -13.53 | -15.27 | -16.65 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| FTSE 250 | 15.81 | 12.64 | 9.78 | 5.41 | SELL | Jan-16 |
| FTSE All Share | -7.12 | -8.98 | -10.85 | -12.67 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| FTSE MIB | 10.14 | 2.05 | -5.46 | -12.85 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| Ibex 35 | -12.97 | -19.98 | -25 | -28.96 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| Ireland SE General (ISEQ) | 64.74 | 59.93 | 53.34 | 44.01 | SELL | Jan-16 |
| OMX Stockholm 30 | 5.11 | -1.84 | -8.69 | -15.64 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| Oslo Exchange All share | -1.35 | -2.98 | -4.76 | -5.03 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| Portugal PSI 20 | -11.49 | -11.97 | -12.53 | -14.24 | CANCEL BUY | Feb-16 |
| Russia MICEX Index | 32.89 | 34.83 | 32.86 | 32.37 | SELL* | Mar-16 |
| Swiss Market Index | 0.71 | -4.99 | -8.92 | -13.01 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| Fixed Income | ||||||
| Barclays US Aggregate Bond | -0.66 | -0.5 | -0.63 | -0.41 | BUY* | Apr-16 |
| US 10y Treasury | 2.57 | 2.716 | 2.123 | 2.46 | CANCEL SELL* | Apr-16 |
| UK 10y Treasury | 6.008 | 5.511 | 4.808 | 4.373 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| Japan 10y Treasury | 5.064 | 5.908 | 6.458 | 7.302 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-16 |
| Germany 10y Treasury | 6.487 | 5.944 | 5.396 | 4.893 | SELL | May-15 |
| FT All Govt | 4.562 | 3.508 | 2.277 | 1.828 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| IBOXX Liquid £ Corp Long-dated | 4.128 | 1.045 | -0.487 | -0.726 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| FTSE British Govt index linked all mats | 13.54 | 10.59 | 7.9 | 5.87 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| Commodities (S&P Goldman Sachs Total Return indices) | ||||||
| Agriculture | -31.85 | -31.07 | -28.15 | -23.48 | BUY | Aug-15 |
| Industrial Metals | -49.41 | -49.35 | -48.85 | -44.76 | BUY | Feb-16 |
| Livestock | -31.97 | -32.16 | -31.26 | -31.8 | CANCEL BUY* | Apr-16 |
| Precious Metals | -21.99 | -17.05 | -13.74 | -7.97 | BUY | Jan-16 |
| Gold Bullion | -19.58 | -14.64 | -11.26 | -5.81 | BUY | Jan-16 |
| Crude Oil | -104.04 | -103.94 | -102.91 | -98.88 | BUY | Feb-16 |
**S&P Goldman Sachs Total Return indices. *New signals
