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Premier Foods: good marketing helps key brands

Management will hope a strong final quarter will cast light on its decision to snub bidder McCormick
May 17, 2016

You can't say Premier Foods (PFD) hasn't put its money where its mouth is. A total of £31m was spent promoting six of its major brands, which include Bisto and Mr Kipling cakes, and launching 20 new products across them. The strategy seems to be working. While sales were pretty much flat on a pro-forma basis (reported figures show a 15-month versus 12-month period), final-quarter turnover rose 1.4 per cent against analyst expectations of declines. Chief executive Gavin Darby said sales across the six brands had contracted by 3.4 per cent in 2014 but were now growing at the same rate.

IC TIP: Buy at 40.5p

This turnaround has prompted management to project sales growth of 2-4 per cent for FY2017. That doesn't include any impact from its recently announced partnership with Japanese instant noodle maker Nissin Foods, though, which isn't expected to be earnings accretive until the following year.

Elsewhere, international sales across the US and Australia rose 18 per cent on a constant currency basis. Net debt fell by £51m and the pension funding situation has improved, with one scheme moving from deficit to surplus.

Analysts at Credit Suisse expect adjusted pre-tax profits of £85m for the year ending April 2017, leading to EPS of 8.2p, compared with £86m and 8.3p in FY2016.

 

PREMIER FOODS (PFD)
ORD PRICE:40.5pMARKET VALUE:£335m
TOUCH:40.5-40.75p12-MONTH HIGH:62pLOW: 30p
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:10
NET ASSET VALUE:103p*NET DEBT:63%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20112.00-259-95.9nil
20121.07-8.028.2nil
20130.844.4-12.8nil
Year to 2 AprTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2015**0.96-136-12.7nil
20160.77-13.04.1nil
% change-20---

Ex-div: na

Payment: na

*Includes intangible assets of £1.14bn, or 139p a share **15-month period