For all of the market's excitement around the UK's EU referendum, there was relative quiet on Coppock in June - surprising, you might think, given the gains made in expectation of a vote to stay and the plunge seen after the result announced on the 24th June went the opposite way.
This calm on Coppock can be partly explained by the way the system works. Readings are taken at the end of the month, so do not necessarily reflect the ups and downs that may have been experienced within any given period. Coppock is, after all, a long term indicator, rather than a system for trading short-term moves.
This is why we are also often wary of reading too much into Coppock readings too quickly - should periods of volatility occur at the end of a month when readings are taken it can deliver signals that do not reflect a more established trend. Of late, this has been particularly apparent in commodity markets, and those equity indices heavily exposed to them - Australia's ASX and South Africa's JSE Top 40 both moved back into sell territory after buy signals in May.
But such flip-flopping has been a marked feature of all of the indices we track going back several years, perhaps a symptom of wider political and economic uncertainty that has seen investors swing rapidly between avoiding risk assets and embracing them. June's Brexit-related indecision provide just one example - although those prepared to trade through the referendum uncertainty and follow Coppock's FTSE 100 Buy signal at the end of May would have been amply rewarded. The strength of the FTSE 100's move has been enough to trigger a Buy signal on the FTSE All share, too, despite continued weakness in the FTSE 250.
Meanwhile, Coppock delivered a new unofficial Buy signal on UK index linked Gilts, meaning all bond markets are now in Buy territory. Along with the fact that almost all of Europe's markets continue to signal Sell, the system continues to indicate significant bouts of equity weakness ahead.
| North America | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Composite | -1.70 | -2.69 | -2.06 | -1.70 | BUY | May-16 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -3.89 | -4.26 | -3.56 | -2.55 | BUY | May-16 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 11.18 | 7.12 | 6.22 | 3.84 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 6.22 | 2.22 | 0.81 | -1.41 | SELL | Apr-14 |
| S&P/TSX | -21.60 | -21.00 | -19.03 | -17.31 | BUY | Apr-16 |
| Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
| Bangkok SET | -24.81 | -24.26 | -22.04 | -18.68 | BUY | Apr-16 |
| FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI | -16.00 | -15.07 | -14.87 | -14.14 | BUY | Feb-16 |
| FTSE China B35 | 6.58 | -4.38 | -13.96 | -22.41 | SELL | Jul-15 |
| Hang Seng | -27.07 | -30.83 | -33.22 | -35.65 | SELL | Jul-15 |
| Korea SE Composite | -3.01 | -3.60 | -4.34 | -5.52 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| Indonesia Jakarta Composite | -22.11 | -21.77 | -20.58 | -15.89 | BUY | Mar-16 |
| Singapore Straits Times | -31.92 | -33.22 | -34.28 | -33.91 | BUY* | Jun-16 |
| Taiwan SE Weighted | -19.63 | -21.39 | -21.26 | -19.60 | BUY | May-16 |
| Japan Topix | 8.25 | -1.71 | -8.79 | -17.93 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| Australia ASX 200 | -15.70 | -17.30 | -16.70 | -17.20 | CANCEL BUY* | Jun-16 |
| New ZealandNZ 50 | 13.09 | 14.68 | 18.24 | 20.02 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-16 |
| South Africa JSE TOP 40 | 0.91 | 0.31 | 1.50 | 0.10 | SELL* | Jun-16 |
| India Sensex | -15.61 | -18.18 | -17.67 | -15.78 | BUY | May-16 |
| South America | ||||||
| Mexico IPC (Bolsa) | 2.02 | 2.74 | 3.38 | 4.22 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-16 |
| Brazil Bovespa | -27.78 | -21.81 | -19.75 | -16.50 | BUY | Mar-16 |
| MSCI EM Latin America US% | -64.35 | -56.28 | -51.25 | -43.39 | BUY | Jan-16 |
| Europe/UK | ||||||
| Netherlands AEX | 2.75 | -2.90 | -6.41 | -10.53 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| Greece Athex Composite | -64.62 | -63.89 | -58.23 | -58.70 | CANCEL BUY* | Jun-16 |
| ATX Austrian Traded | -0.33 | -3.56 | -6.54 | -12.54 | SELL | Jan-16 |
| Belgium Bel 20 | 8.70 | 2.91 | -0.41 | -5.22 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| Germany Dax 30 | 1.15 | -5.00 | -9.51 | -14.77 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | -7.52 | -13.22 | -17.44 | -23.16 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| France Cac 40 | 2.59 | -3.09 | -6.97 | -12.99 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| FTSE 100 | -15.27 | -16.65 | -16.27 | -15.19 | BUY | May-16 |
| FTSE 250 | 9.78 | 5.41 | 3.26 | -0.91 | SELL | Jan-16 |
| FTSE All Share | -10.85 | -12.67 | -12.70 | -12.53 | BUY* | Jun-16 |
| FTSE MIB | -5.46 | -12.85 | -20.12 | -29.65 | SELL | Dec-15 |
| Ibex 35 | -25.00 | -28.96 | -31.96 | -37.32 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| Ireland SE General (ISEQ) | 53.34 | 44.01 | 38.19 | 27.55 | SELL | Jan-16 |
| OMX Stockholm 30 | -8.69 | -15.64 | -20.06 | -24.79 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| Oslo Exchange All share | -4.76 | -5.03 | -4.20 | -4.60 | CANCEL BUY* | Jun-16 |
| Portugal PSI 20 | -12.53 | -14.24 | -16.63 | -22.84 | CANCEL BUY | Feb-16 |
| Russia MICEX Index | 32.86 | 32.37 | 32.00 | 30.56 | SELL | Mar-16 |
| Swiss Market Index | -8.92 | -13.01 | -14.83 | -17.88 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| Fixed Income | ||||||
| Barclays US Aggregate Bond | -0.63 | -0.41 | -0.16 | 0.84 | BUY | Apr-16 |
| US 10y Treasury | 2.12 | 2.46 | 2.95 | 4.47 | CANCEL SELL | Apr-16 |
| UK 10y Treasury | 4.81 | 4.37 | 4.64 | 7.23 | CANCEL SELL | May-16 |
| Japan 10y Treasury | 6.46 | 7.30 | 8.31 | 9.45 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-16 |
| Germany 10y Treasury | 5.40 | 4.89 | 5.25 | 6.68 | CANCEL SELL | May-16 |
| FT All Govt | 2.28 | 1.83 | 1.94 | 4.39 | CANCEL SELL | May-16 |
| IBOXX Liquid £ Corp Long-dated | -0.49 | -0.73 | -7.98 | -5.69 | BUY | May-16 |
| FTSE British Govt index linked all mats | 7.90 | 5.87 | 4.69 | 7.28 | CANCEL SELL* | Jun-16 |
| Commodities (S&P Goldman Sachs Total Return indices) | ||||||
| Agriculture | -28.15 | -23.48 | -20.59 | -15.71 | BUY | Aug-15 |
| Industrial Metals | -48.85 | -44.76 | -42.26 | -38.21 | BUY | Feb-16 |
| Livestock | -31.26 | -31.80 | -30.87 | -29.89 | BUY | May-16 |
| Precious Metals | -13.74 | -7.97 | -4.50 | 3.33 | BUY | Jan-16 |
| Gold Bullion | -11.26 | -5.81 | -2.55 | 4.93 | BUY | Jan-16 |
| Crude Oil | -102.91 | -98.88 | -92.62 | -87.15 | BUY | Feb-16 |
*New signals
