Seeking alpha from the housebuilders

Simon Thompson

Simon Thompson
Seeking alpha from the housebuilders

I have been contacted by a number of readers asking whether or not it's worth playing my favoured first-quarter housebuilder trading strategy this year. I first discovered this stock market phenomenon while carrying out quantitative research 13 years ago ('Time to take stock', 14 Nov 2003), noting at the time that: "On average, you would have made a healthy 8.1 per cent profit over the first three months of the year by investing in the housebuilding sector... and anyone possessing the Midas touch by calling the top in each of those first quarters would have made an average three-month return of 15.7 per cent since 1992." The strategy is relatively low-risk too, because "only two of the 12 years have produced negative returns".

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