The oil market is "very close to balance", according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), suggesting producers have largely benefited from Opec's decision to cut supply. In its half-time report on the cartel's cuts to production, the agency cited impressive compliance from the cartel's members, unplanned outages and rising political tension as contributors to prices that have largely traded above $50 (£39) a barrel since the beginning of the year.
This has happened despite weaker than forecast demand in the first quarter of 2017, which the IEA blamed on subdued growth in India and Russia and weaker momentum in other developed countries. And while stock levels may have marginally increased in the three months to April - against an implied drawdown of around 200,000 barrels a day - the IEA believes that a further extension to Opec's cuts would imply bigger stock draws. That would also imply higher prices, although this could be checked by the size of the year-on-year growth in production expected in May, as US shale producers return to the pump.
