On Wednesday, the ONS might report that unemployment has fallen below 1.5m, or to 4.5 per cent of the workforce. That would be the lowest rate since 1975. But this is not raising wage growth; it is expected to remain at just over 2 per cent.
One partial explanation for this is that there is a greater excess supply of labour than the unemployment number suggests: there are 2.1m people out of the labour market who want to work. Also, labour productivity is still stagnating: Wednesday's numbers are likely to show that total hours worked rose by around 0.2 per cent in the last three months, much the same rate as GDP grew. These, however, don't fully explain the weakness of wage growth. It seems that workers' bargaining power is now lower for a given level of employment than it was in the past.
While this remains the case, inflation is unlikely to rise much and so there's little urgent need for the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Two other developments next week will corroborate this.
On Tuesday, the RICS is likely to report that house price inflation is slowing, as a lack of demand offsets supply shortages. And on Thursday. The Bank of England's credit conditions survey could show that loan demand is weak not just for mortgages but for corporate loans too. That survey should also show, however, that defaults on loans - even unsecured consumer credit - are still low.
Elsewhere, we should see signs of good global growth. Although eurozone figures on Wednesday should show little change in industrial production in May, this would follow a good April, and put the region on course for quarterly output growth of around 0.7 per cent.
And in the US, we should see moderate rises in both retail sales and industrial production. Although this would imply little growth in sales overall in the second quarter, industrial production is likely to be up by well over 1 per cent in the quarter.
Other US figures will show the same puzzle as in the UK - that a tight labour market isn't generating inflation. Friday's figures should show core consumer price inflation around 1.7 per cent; it averaged 2.2 per cent last year. This will tell us that the Fed is raising rates not because of any immediate threat of inflation but rather merely to try to normalise rates, having held them extraordinarily low for a long time.
