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Sunny outlook for On The Beach

On The Beach shares set to warm up
July 10, 2017

The summer holiday season is upon us and more Brits than ever are expected to have booked their beach holidays online. Online penetration of the UK short-haul market has risen from about a tenth in 2004 to just over half in 2016. At the same time, innovative industry disrupters, such as On The Beach (OTB), have been taking share from the big players, such as Tui (TUI) and Thomas Cook (TCG). Indeed, 'legacy' tour operators that account for about 90 per cent of the offline short-haul beach holiday market account for only about half the online trade. OTB, meanwhile, has seen its share of this market, which is considered relatively defensive, more than double from 9 per cent in its 2011 financial year to a fifth in 2016. What's more, its low-cost, online-only operating model means despite selling a broad range of low-price holidays, and taking on less risk than traditional tour operators, it boasts high margins on sales.

IC TIP: Buy at 401p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points
  • Growing market share and website traffic
  • Rising pre-tax profit
  • Recent acquisition and scope for more
  • Few costs
Bear points
  • Flat holiday prices
  • Trades at a premium

OTB does not buy flights or hotel rooms ahead of time to later sell to customers, as is the case with traditional tour operators. Instead the online travel agent offers real-time prices and does not purchase anything until instructed to do so by its clients, thereby reducing capital requirements and the risk associated with selling into the cut-price 'lates' market. Instead, OTB has commercial agreements with the airlines and hotel groups and uses its scale as a buyer to spread costs and get a better price. Website users can also compare various flights and hotels and read reviews of travellers who have already visited the destinations. Users have the option to spread their cost into payment instalments, too.

Progress has been rapid. At the half-year stage, the five-year compound annual growth rate for revenue stood at 29 per cent and - with costs as a percentage of sales falling - for cash profit was 37 per cent. Daily unique visits to the site increased 9.5 per cent in the first half to 27.5m. And while OTB faced tough competition from traditional operators due to early bookings and the advantageous effect of hedging, revenue was up 7.3 per cent to £38.1m in the period, while pre-tax profit increased 34 per cent to £9.9m. The second half is expected to be stronger for OTB as the tailwinds for traditional operators fade and OTB benefits from the collapse of an aggressive competitor, Low Cost Travel Group.

As OTB's scale increases and its brand becomes better known it is edging back the heavy marketing spending that has helped power growth. Online marketing expenditure as a proportion of revenue was 40.4 per cent in the most recent half-year results, compared with 46.3 per cent during the same period the year before. The group should also benefit from its acquisition of fellow travel website Sunshine.co.uk for £12m in May, and the strong balance sheet means further deals could be on the cards.

 

ON THE BEACH (OTB)
ORD PRICE:401pMARKET VALUE:£523m
TOUCH:401-401.5p12-MONTH HIGH:415pLOW: 175p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:1.1%FORWARD PE RATIO:17
NET ASSET VALUE:67p*NET DEBT:2.6%

 

Year to 30 SepRevenue (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
20156314.58.9nil
20167121.213.02.20
2017**8727.517.63.14
2018**10637.123.44.43
% change+22+35+33+41

Normal market size: 1,000

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.34

*Includes intangible assets of £63m, or 48p a share

**Numis forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures