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AlphaScreens: GARP indicates late stage in cycle

Thin pickings for our GARP screen could indicate a late stage in the market cycle
April 9, 2019

Our GARP screen is still proving a tough nut to crack, which is perhaps indicative of where we are in the economic and market cycles.

  • Only two FTSE All-Share firms – packaging specialist Macfarlane (MACF) and recruiter Page Group (PAGE) – pass all our growth at right price criteria.
  • There are only seven tests targeting just smaller companies. These are applied to companies included in the FTSE All-Small Companies Index (which has some overlap with the All-Share) and Aim shares. Macfarlane again is the only company listed on the main market to pass all small company tests. On Aim, just Sylvania Platinum (SLP), scores 7/7. 
  • What this screen highlights, is the challenge in finding good companies positioned for growth without being too expensive. Currently, companies with a degree of cyclical risk are coming out on top, which is reason to be cautious.
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