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AlphaScreens: Does GARP show fair value?

Some results of our growth at right price (GARP) screen suggest fair value rather than being screaming buys.
July 30, 2019

There are some companies that have scored well on the screen that are due to report imminently. This will affect many of the figures, the forecasts and the share prices these screens are based on, so investors should pay special attention to news flow for companies on their watch list.

  • Our Growth at Right Price (GARP) screen can sometimes suggest when a company is fair value, based on the present data, rather than a screaming buy.  This seems to be the case with Unilever (ULVR), which passes all our tests designed for larger companies except the five-year revenue growth rate.  Unilever has a bit of a problem longer term with the rising quality of own-label products that undercut its branded goods on price. Arguably, its good ranking in our screen shows profit growth is treading water for now and the shares aren’t overly expensive thanks to the muted picture for revenue growth after it reported last Thursday.
  • Building supply business Marshalls (MSLH) only fails one test, which is that companies’ earnings per share growth must be within a sustainable range of 7.5 to 20 per cent. This business has grown profits at a faster rate, which while clearly positive is a sign to assess whether the rate of earnings growth is due to slow.
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