Global manufacturers are still in the doldrums, upcoming figures should show. In the US, the ISM might report a fifth successive monthly decline in activity, while purchasing managers’ surveys are likely to confirm that output also fell in the UK and eurozone in December. And official figures from Japan could show a decline in production in November after a big fall in October.
It won’t all be bad news, though. US durable goods orders could show a small rise, while purchasing managers in China might report a slight increase in output. And the European Central Bank could report that growth in the M1 measure of the money stock in the eurozone has accelerated to an annual rate of close to 9 per cent. Historically, pick-ups in this growth rate have been a good lead indicator of recoveries in output growth.
What’s more, the general economy is doing better than manufacturing, as US figures will remind us. The BLS is likely to report in the new year that the economy created a net 200,000 jobs in December, enough to keep the unemployment rate at a 51-year low of 3.5 per cent. And while the Conference Board might report another slight dip in consumer confidence, this remains close to an 18-year high.