Next week might bring signs of a recovery – albeit a weak one from a low base.
Flash purchasing managers’ surveys could show that UK manufacturing output stabilised in June after collapsing in April and May. This should be confirmed by the CBI survey, which could show a record drop in output in the last three months but expectations for a levelling off in the next three: the survey will also show prices falling a lot, although how much due to falling input prices and how much to weak demand is unclear. Another CBI survey could show that retail sales have picked up, thanks to the easing of restrictions on a few shops such as garden centres – although they will of course be sharply down on a year ago.
News from the eurozone might be slightly better. Purchasing managers there might report that output is rising slightly, thanks to the easing of lockdowns – although of course it is doing so from a low base.