Next week could bring evidence of a post-lockdown recovery in economic activity.
Having shocked everybody by showing increased employment last month, non-farm payrolls could post another rise as the economy reopens. Consistent with this, the ISM should report a recovery in manufacturing output and the Conference Board could say that consumer confidence is recovering. Unemployment, though, might still be twice its pre-lockdown level, which reminds us that there’s a long way to go before the economy fully heals.
There should also be signs of an upturn elsewhere. Official Japanese figures could show a rise in industrial production after big falls in the last two months. And purchasing managers in China should report a small increase in manufacturing activity.