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Market Outlook: Trump’s team in tatters

American Manufacturing Council
August 15, 2017

First Merck’s black CEO steeped down from his advisory role on the Council citing ‘a matter of personal conscience’.  Then top dogs at Intel and Under Armour do the same because of the President’s delay in condemning white supremacist action in Charlottesville, Virginia, over the weekend.  As if the gentleman didn’t have enough on his plate yesterday Donald Trump started an investigation into China’s intellectual property policies saying, ‘this is just the beginning. This is what I promised to do as a candidate for this office and this is what I am doing right now as President’.

Assumption Day holidays for many in Europe today.

DAX 30

Zero momentum on the daily chart as we consolidate neatly below horizontal resistance at 12345.  Q2 German GDP published today grew 0.6 per cent Q/Q and 2.1 per cent Y/Y.  Finland saw theirs drop 0.5 per cent over the same period, its worst since 2012.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 12225; stop above 12355.  Target 11550.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12175; stop above 12415.  Target 11500.

FTSE 100

Yesterday’s little bounce from horizontal support kept momentum bearish on the daily chart. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Looking for a level at which to re-sell, probably 7400-7425 about the best I can hope for.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7300; stop above 7455.  Target roughly 7000.

S&P 500

Yesterday’s big bounce formed a candle whose body lies inside Thursday’s fall.  This combination can be seen as an irregular harami pattern, denoting uncertainty and a pregnant pause.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2468; stop above 2485.  Next target is pivotal support at 2400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Will sell only on a weekly close below 2400.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Slow work as we try to cling to the 1.3000 area as some commentators are talking about sterling parity to the euro.  UK July inflation data due this morning.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square and looking at the commodity channel indicator for an interim base to form.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

No longer overbought on the daily chart while consolidating neatly just under year’s highest level.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1740; stop below 1.1700.  Target 1.2150.

GOLD

Retreating from the top of the broad band that has dominated since February as it did most recently in early June.  It looks as though today the commodity channel index might turn down confirming another interim top.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Planning to re-sell.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.