Yesterday truck maker Scania, part of the VW group, was fined €880 million by the European Commission competition authority for colluding with 5 of its competitors over prices and emissions over a 14 year period starting in 1997. The other manufacturers have already paid €2.9 billion in fines and between them all account for 9 out of every 10 trucks on European roads. ‘These trucks account for three quarters of inland transport of goods in Europe and play a vital role in the European economy’, said Margrethe Vestager.
City AM reports that research by Hong Kong-based Quinlan & Associates shows US and European banks have already paid $342 billion in fines since 2009. On top of that the top 50 global banks have missed out on $850 billion in potential profits because of curbs on their activities. More fines are expected, a Dallas jury this week ordering JPMorgan Chase to pay $4 billion to a widow for mishandling the administration of her dead husband’s estate.
DAX 30
Retracing a Fibonacci 76.4 per cent of this summer’s decline. Note that Wolfgang Schauble, long standing German finance minister has agreed to bow out becoming parliamentary speaker as Angela Merkel organises her new government.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 12625; stop above 12700. Target 12125.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
Holding in a potential inverted flag formation above long term trend line support. MACD mixed at the moment.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 7220; stop above 7335. Target 7100.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 7300; stop above 7375. Target roughly 7000.
S&P 500
Inching to what looks here a new record high yet bullish momentum is weak indeed.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Retreating a fraction further so that the MACD has now turned down. Exactly 20 years ago today Gordon Brown granted the Bank of England its independence, 10 years later the financial crisis hit, and 10 years on from that we continue with record low interest rates. Yesterday their chief economist Andy Haldane pointed out, ‘we could be nearing the point where a reduction of monetary stimulus might be warranted. This would be interest rates getting back to normal…a good news story’.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out of my little long position at a loss. Oh dear.
POSITION TAKER: Long at 1.3195; stop below 1.3215. Target about 1.4000.
EURO/US DOLLAR
With the MACD steadily bearish since mid-month the euro has retraced a Fibonacci 38 per cent of the rally that started in July, part of a recent move of generalised US dollar recovery.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1.1750; stop above 1.1910; target 1.1600.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Bearish momentum at its strongest this year as we drop below the horizontal level around 1295, suggesting the rally in early September was some sort of a false break here and also in other precious metals. Interesting to note that palladium is currently more expensive than platinum.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1291; stop above 1320; target 1240.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
Nicole Elliott is a long standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.
