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Market Outlook: All Saints Day

May those killed in Manhattan rest in peace
November 1, 2017

Last night, Halloween, a sad and deranged young man attacked tourists, other pedestrians, and cyclists by driving into them with a rented pick-up truck, injuring another 12 or so before crashing into a school bus on the West Side Highway.  This is the first terrorist attack on New York since the 9/11 Twin Towers.  Police shot the suspect in the abdomen and he is now in custody.  Today is a public holiday in many countries.

A survey of 3000 people carried out by Deloitte found UK consumers tightened their belts in Q3, cutting spending on leisure activities.  Restaurants were the worst hit, spending falling 8 per cent in the three months to September versus that a year ago.  Drinking in pubs and cafes was down 5 per cent, culture and entertainment off 6 per cent.  As well as wages failing to keep up with inflation they noted a trend for millennials to prioritise big-ticket spending, like holidays and football matches, making sport the only category not to suffer, reports City AM.

DAX 30

Rallying to a new record high and the RSI reads 83.2 this morning – a level we’ve rarely seen since 2009’s low.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Rallying in sympathy with other bourses despite a potential rate rise – the first in a decade – from the Bank of England.  Some pundits are suggesting it might be the one and only rate rise for a long time, others believing that it is a good sign in that the economy is getting back to normal.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7554; stop above 7570.  Target 7320.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Yesterday the CME announced that it will be listing a Bitcoin futures contract – and even that didn’t spook this market.  It will start trading some time before the end of this year, pending relevant regulatory review periods, and will be cash-settled based on a once-a-day CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of my short this morning at a small loss.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Getting a bit of a lift from rate rise chatter and tough Brexit noise, so that the commodity channel index surges from Friday’s low.  Against the euro at £0.8750 it’s at its stronger levels of this summer.  The close above the top of the triangle is another bullish sign, as is the fact we’ve broken above August’s high.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New long on last night’s close at 1.3290; stop below 1.3190.  Target 1.3575.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

A feeble attempt at a bounce from the watershed level at 1.1600, maybe because of Monday’s Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting to discuss a common budget and fiscal rules.  

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Nothing doing here as punters’ eyes fixated by Bitcoin. 

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 1275; stop above 1285.  Target 1220.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.