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Market Outlook: Trading woes in FICC

Goldman rearranges the top team
November 8, 2017

This morning French Bank Credit Agricole became the latest in a long line of big banks admitting that profits were dragged down by a slump in market trading.  Goldman Sachs yesterday announced two new co-chief operating officers at its fixed income, currencies and commodities unit, a stalwart of their banking model.   

Data published yesterday by the Office for National Statistics showed that British people are happier twelve months after voting to leave the EU.  Average satisfaction rose from 7.4 in July 2016 to 7.7 in July this year.  Feeling that life is worthwhile was reported by 7.9 out of every 10 people, and happiness by 7.5, both an improvement on last year and the highest readings since 2011.  The reading for anxiety remained unchanged at 2.9.

DAX 30

Stalling suddenly so that the RSI has dropped below 70.  Yesterday’s candle looks like a bearish engulfing one but that’s because the range of the previous days is so very small.  On the other hand, with so many now claiming the EU is booming, it might be time for a fall.  Deutsche Bank CEO this morning said that many of the 97,000 staff the bank employs would be let go as technology increases efficiency.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Definitely a bearish engulfing candle yesterday starting at a new record high.  This has sent the commodity channel index slumping, exactly as we had been watching for.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square, unfortunately.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Another index retreating fractionally though with no particular chart pattern and still overbought.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Yesterday’s little hammer/dragonfly doji candle is bullish but a pity that momentum isn’t.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.3155; stop below 1.3025.  Target 1.3300.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Struggling around the pivotal 1.1600 area though managing to close above it to form a hammer but momentum is clearly bearish.  

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1.1610; stop above 1.1700.  Target 1.1200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Breaking a trend line is inevitable if one moves sideways. 

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 1275; stop above 1285.  Target 1220.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.