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Market Outlook: German deadline looms

Still no coalition
November 16, 2017

After centrist parties suffered massive falls in voter support at the latest general election, it has been a month of wrangling as Angela Merkel tries for the first time ever to form a four-way coalition government in Germany.  Her self-imposed deadline is Friday this week, and as is all too often the case last minute negotiations seem to go on well into the night.  They’re not the only ones without a government: Northern Ireland has been in this position since early this year.    

Last night in New York auction house Christies sold one of the few Leonardo da Vinci paintings in existence for $450 million which includes a $50 million premium paid by the buyer to the business.  The seller also must pay the house a commission, both of which attract VAT at 20 per cent (in the UK).  The painting last sold for $127 million in 2013.

DAX 30

The parabolic stop-and-reverse now lies at 13400, underlining the fairly steep slide from the record high.  Yesterday’s spike below 38 per cent Fibonacci retracement support also hints at fairly strong bearish momentum.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 12960; stop above 13225.  First target 12700.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Will sell depending on what type of candle and where we end up this week.

FTSE 100

Yesterday’s slide, for a fifth consecutive working day, saw bearish momentum increase to its strongest in two months.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7470; stop above 7500.  Target 7125.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

First Fibonacci retracement support held yesterday so the potential rounded top is not yet complete because we need a daily close below here to do so.  Even so, the MACD became a fraction more bearish on yesterday’s price action.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2565; stop above 2615.  First target 2515 and more realistically 2460.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Zero momentum as we creep sideways inside a sort of rectangle chart pattern.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.3155; stop below 1.3025.  Target 1.3300.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

The chart of the euro/dollar gets no easier, now with a massive shooting star candle above the 50 per cent retracement resistance level.  This suggests an interim high has been found and that the bare-knuckle fight around the 1.1700 area has further to go   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

 

Like the euro/dollar, spot gold formed a shooting star yesterday and we have yet again re-drawn the upper edge of the triangle formation o incorporate it.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.                            

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.