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Market Outlook: Trump’s first triumph

Senate passes tax reform
December 20, 2017

At last President Trump’s managed to get something through Congress – though it must still get a final sign off in the House of Representatives.  What some are hailing as the most important change to US tax laws in decades, corporates will pay just 21 per cent versus the old 35 per cent tax rate – bringing it into line with global norms.  The wealthy will pay roughly 3 per cent less and the gap of about $1 trillion must be filled by the Treasury.

Tomorrow Catalonia will hold parliamentary elections and polls claim that pro-secessionist and unionist parties are neck and neck.  Pro-independence ex-president Carles Puigdemont, who has been running his campaign from self-imposed exile in Brussels, is up against another two pro-independence parties which together are expected to win 67 of a total 135 seats.

DAX 30

An inside day yesterday with price action pretty much contained in Monday’s range.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

A doji candle yesterday at an area we have struggled at in October and early November suggests that we’ll hold below here, maybe for the rest of this week, as bullish momentum has been dented.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Still overbought on the daily RSI despite yesterday’s small pullback in US indices.  Almost a question of buy the rumour, sell the fact as US tax reforms were not signed off until around 05:30 GMT today.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Holding up quite nicely with a dragonfly doji yesterday and the commodity channel index moving higher. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

The euro inching higher even as TheCityUK CEO Miles Celic says, ‘it might be Christmas, but Michel Barnier doesn’t need to play Scrooge’.  Added to that EU Commission officials threaten to invoke Article 7 for Poland this week in a dispute over judicial reforms that’s been rumbling for a couple of years. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1825; stop below 1.1715.  Target 1.1940.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Poised on first Fibonacci retracement resistance with the MACD only very fractionally bullish.  Probably about time this little rally stalls.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1249; stop above 1270.  First target 1215, and 1200.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.