Yesterday we had data from Visa, today from the British Retail Consortium showing a steep drop in spending in the UK high street. Though overall spending rose by 1.1 per cent in Q4 2017, versus up 1.7 over the calendar year, non-food sales fell by 1.4 per cent in the three months to Christmas, the biggest drop since 2009. Food sales grew by 4.2 per cent, outpacing inflation’s 3.1 per cent rise.
US Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said yesterday that their target rate for Fed Funds might only need two 25 basis point increases this year, fewer than most analysts are currently pencilling in. Adding, ‘long-term rates have been much stickier [than short dates]; I am going to make sure our policy does not invert the yield curve’ – which is currently at its flattest since 2009.
DAX 30
A tiny doji yesterday, hanging in mid-air, just under the record high. Not quite overbought and still within the price range of the last three months. Hardly inspiring.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
FTSE 100
Overbought, as it has been so far this year, but holding neatly close to the record high.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Long at 7681; stop below 7600. Target 8000.
S&P 500
Another index with a doji, this one at the record high, and very overbought again on the RSI.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Triangle consolidation this year, part of the pennant chart pattern that started after Christmas, is seen as a market setting up for a serious challenge of pivotal resistance around 1.3600.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Long at 1.3540; stop below 1.3470. First target 1.3800.
POSITION TAKER: Still square and looking to go long.
EURO/US DOLLAR
The market and bullish momentum slipping a bit as Jean-Paul Junker warns that despite the loss of British contributions to the EU the Commission will push for an even bigger budget.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small long at 1.2035; stop below 1.1935. Target 1.2185.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Suddenly stopped just ahead of last year’s high, forcing the MACD down a little.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1314; stop above 1335. Target 1270.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.
