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Market Outlook: World Bank upgrades outlook

Last hurrah for the global economy
January 10, 2018

In a significant revision to figures published in June, the World Bank now expects global growth to be 3.1 per cent in 2018; this would then slow over the following two years.  They are worried about the potential for a financial market upset and say that productivity and investment need to increase.

Mifid II, the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, which came into force this month (and was originally meant to be introduced a year ago,), suffered another set-back late yesterday.  The European Securities and Markets Authority said that because many share trading venues had as yet been unable to supply lists of equities which were to be excluded from dark pools, it was impossible to place a cap on their volumes; they have been given a 30-day grace period to comply.  This follows the exclusion for a period of 30 months for some derivative exchanges announced earlier this week.

DAX 30

Stalling just under the record high as many Asian indices retreat a bit this morning. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

 

FTSE 100

Overbought and pushing up against the record high again.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 7681; stop below 7600.  Target 8000.

S&P 500

Still very overbought on the RSI with a little shooting star candle yesterday and current consensus opinion that the only way is up.  RSI readings on the Dow Industrials have only ever been this high in the year 2000 and before that in 1929.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Adjusting the lower edge of the triangle in which this currency pair has been consolidating this year. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.3540; stop below 1.3470.  First target 1.3800.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Bullish momentum has dropped very significantly and the euro has lost three yen in three days’ trading this year – the biggest move in a long time.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of my long position on yesterday’s pullback.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

 

Prices are rolling over as the MACD does too.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1314; stop above 1335.  Target 1270.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.