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Market Outlook: Another late night in Berlin

Another missed deadline
February 7, 2018

The usual negotiating nonsense in Europe with supposed cliff-hanger deals been done late at night – for an election that took place on Sunday the 24th September 2017.  Angela Merkel leading the talks on behalf the CSU said she was ready to make ‘painful compromises’ to get some sort of grand coalition style pact with the SDP’s Schulz.  She noted, ‘we must not lose sight of the important points, when we look at the turbulent stock market developments of the last few hours’, obviously not seeing that she is part of the problem.

BBC radio reported today that a court case against Tesco supermarket, where store-based staff (mainly female) allege they were underpaid for years when compared to warehouse-based staff (mainly male).  Back pay that they might receive could add up to £4 billion.   

DAX 30

Blaming algos for moves like these is pathetic.  Basic strategy, risk tools and clear thinking are essential.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Planning to re-sell at some point this week.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Re-sold this index as at the close of business yesterday at 12650; stop above 12900.  First target 12000, then probably more.

FTSE 100

Still oversold despite yesterday’s big bounce.  Merely trying to cling to a band of very long term support between 7100 and 7200.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square and looking to go short.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 7260; stop above 7400.  First target 7050, then probably 6675.

S&P 500

Yesterday’s rally was capped at previous trend line support and the market is no longer oversold.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 2760; stop above 2725; target 2550.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 2700; stop above 2750.  First target 2545.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Yesterday’s dragonfly doji ahead of Fibonacci retracement support hints that a low is in place marking the end to the A, B, C-type correction from this year’s high.  Note that yesterday the Bank of England signed a new global code of conduct following ‘serious misconduct’ in the FX, fixed income and commodity markets – areas that they are supposed to supervise.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny long at 1.3975; stop below 1.3800.  First target 1.4250.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New long at 1.3930; stop well below 1.3800.  First target 1.4275, then 1.4650.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Yesterday’s doji looks like a market trying hard to get used to these higher levels.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2425; stop well below 1.2300.  Target 1.2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.2200; stop below 1.2290.  First target 1.2600, then maybe 1.3000.

GOLD

So-called investors are trying to work out exactly what asset classes they hold, why, and whether they have any defensive properties or intrinsic value.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 1335; stop above 1355.  Target 1280.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 1330; stop above 1366.  Target 1250.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.