This morning Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam announced a third consecutive annual loss while saying "[the bank] is in a better place" than it was this time last year. The bulk of the loss can be put down to the CHF 2.74bn (£2.11bn) paid in income tax, where the re-assessment of US deferred taxes took pole position. Commenting on market problems it has had, he said: "We have seen a significant pick-up in market volatility, which on the one hand had a positive impact on our secondary activities, and on the other hand, negatively impacted our primary calendar as clients wait for calmer markets."
Swiss banks are not alone in reporting dull or depressing numbers. Eurozone bad debt, estimated at €944bn (£840bn), has hampered new lending and return on equity at all too many banks over the past decade. In absolute terms Bloomberg reports that Italian lenders are nursing a cool €224bn in problem loans, followed by France with €142bn and Spain €131bn. As a percentage of total loans Greece and Cyprus have somewhere between 25 and 50 per cent of loans in arrears, Ireland, Portugal, and the Balkans between 10 and 25 per cent.
DAX 30
Pushing into the apex of triangle consolidation, becoming less oversold in the process.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 12535; stop well above 12600. Target 11700.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 12650; stop above 12800. First target 12050, then probably more.
FTSE 100
Hovering, and thus becoming marginally less oversold, around key long term chart levels.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 7180; stop well above 7300. Target 7000.
POSITION TAKER: Small short and looking to re-sell as close to 7300 as I think I can get for a drop to the 6675 area.
S&P 500
Three consecutive days of gains means the index is certainly no longer oversold.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New short at 2660; stop well above 2700. Target 2550.
POSITION TAKER: Short with a stop above 2750. Target 2455 – and maybe a lot more.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Very slow work but hopefully we’ll get there in the end. Note that overnight dollar/yen today has dipped below 107.00, trading at its lowest level since November 2016.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New small long at 1.3885; stop well below 1.3800. Target 1.4200.
POSITION TAKER: Long at 1.3930; stop well below 1.3800. First target 1.4275, then 1.4650.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Picking up the pace a bit with the commodity channel index adding to bullish momentum.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small long at 1.2265; stop below 1.2200. Target 1.2500.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Bearish momentum is far weaker than we had hoped.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 1335; stop above 1347. Target 1280.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1330; stop above 1350. Target 1250.
Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.
