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Market Outlook: Prepare for no-deal scenario

Says Mario Draghi
February 27, 2018

Speaking at the European Parliament yesterday the ECB president said the EU needed to accelerate the passage of regulation ahead of Brexit.  He stressed ‘the critical importance of finalising the adoption of key pieces of EU legislation, such as European Market Infrastructure Regulation II, well in advance of Brexit, in order to be prepared for all possible contingencies, including a no-deal scenario’.  Front and centre of his concerns is the issue of derivatives clearing houses where the 3 biggest UK ones handle around €1 trillion daily.   

The ‘Beast from the East’ as icy weather has been dubbed in the UK has also affected large parts of mainland Europe.  The army were called in to clear Rome’s streets which were blanketed in snow, just what one needs ahead of Sunday’s general election, and another weather system is forecast to bring blizzards as far south as Portugal later this week.  

DAX 30

Another tiny hanging man yesterday as this index struggles just under the 50 per cent retracement resistance. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 12535; stop well above 12600.  Target 11700.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12650; stop above 12875.  First target 12050, then probably more.

FTSE 100

Struggling between the 38 and 50 per cent retracement levels with many beginning to blow a sigh of relief that February’s slump appears to have fizzled out.  Note the commodity channel index might signal a sell soon.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Small short at 7180; stop above 7325.  Target 7000.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7250; stop above 7325.  Target the 6675 area.

S&P 500

Bouncing a lot more strongly than European bourses helped by a relatively weak currency.  Note that it is not overbought as it was when it first hit current levels.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of my short.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Surprised at being stopped out of my short position.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Rather comprehensively slapped down from the top of triangle consolidation yet momentum remains bullish.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.3975; stop below 1.3800.  Target 1.4275.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

No momentum to speak of as we trundle along at these higher levels.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2267; stop below 1.2200.  Target 1.2500.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Another chart with too little momentum to bother with.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.