Data out this morning from the Nationwide show that in February house prices dipped by 0.3 per cent taking the annual growth rate to 2.2 per cent from 3.2 in January. Their chief economist said, ‘month-to-month changes can be volatile, but the slowdown is consistent with signs of softening in the household sector’. Yesterday data for mortgage approvals from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association showed these soared at the end of 2017 as compared to the same time the year before. City AM says this was because better product availability, low interest rates, and competition between lenders encouraged first time buyers so that 74 per cent of applications were approved, up from 53 per cent in 2016.
Singapore-based commodities trader Noble Group lost $4.9 billion in 2017 against a profit of $8.7 million in 2016. Believed to be the biggest ever corporate hit in the city state, the board noted it was satisfied the group could continue as a going concern until a $3.4 billion debt-for-equity deal kicks in.
DAX 30
Many all too eager to get February behind them. The monthly candle is a bearish engulfing one with a long tail below important horizontal support. It wiped out gains of all of the previous five months but held clearly above long term trend line support. The stumble corrected the overbought situation. Obviously a monthly close below both of these lines would be fairly catastrophic.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 12535; stop well above 12600. Target 11700.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 12650; stop above 12655. First target 12050, then probably more.
FTSE 100
Ending the month bang on horizontal support despite the long tail on the monthly candle. Nevertheless, the MACD turned down on the month and adds bearish weight to the shooting star in January.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 7180; stop above 7325. Target 7000.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 7250; stop above 7325. Target the 6675 area.
S&P 500
I haven’t seen such a nasty pair of monthly candles in years. Not quite a tweezers top at the record high, nor a bearish engulfing one, but a really nasty swoon with the RSI at its most overbought ever. Be afraid!
SHORT TERM TRADER: New small short at 2720; stop well above 2800. Target 2550.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
It may look nasty today but in the bigger scheme of things February’s retreat lies inside January’s rally, the struggle happening just under the half-way mark from 2014’s interim high. While rising trendline support holds, we would continue to prefer to buy dips.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out of my long position at a loss.
POSITION TAKER: Looking to re-buy ahead of 1.3600.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Momentum is more bullish than it has been in years despite hesitation during the last two months at long term trend line resistance. Just a matter of time before we break above the psychological 1.2500.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small long at 1.2267; stop well below 1.2200. Target 1.2500.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Stalling yet again under the 1400 area as it has done so many times since 2013. The MACD, though positive since 2016, is frankly almost as flat as a pancake.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Might consider selling on a close below immediate support.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.
