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Market Outlook: Result of ‘Beast from the East’

UK March retail sales implode
April 6, 2018

In the first week of March, when Arctic conditions hit Britain, shoppers literally froze, footfall on the High Street off a massive 17.5 per cent.  Data from BDO showed that retail sales fell by 10.1 per cent Y/Y – the second worst like-for-like data ever, according to City AM.  ‘’Shoppers’ reaction showed how paper-thin consumer confidence is currently; they couldn’t get to the shops but they weren’t spending online to make up the shortfall’’, said Sophie Michael, BDO head of retail.  The weather also affected PMI readings for the services sector, 51.7 in March and the lowest since the Brexit referendum.

From today those in UK automatic enrolment pension plans will have to increase the percentages paid.  Employers’ contribution will double to 2 per cent of gross pay (between £113 and £866 per week) and employees will pay 3 rather than 2 per cent.     

DAX 30

Yesterday’s shooting star against trend line resistance following Wednesday’s hammer candle underlines the skittishness of stock markets as the react to each new pronouncement in the Sino-American trade war.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of my position on yesterday’s short squeeze.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 11800; stop above 12400.  Target 9500.

FTSE 100

Very nasty with a shooting star candle at the apex of the old triangle. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Bearish momentum has disappeared and this market is merely marking time until this afternoon’s US payroll data.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 2675; stop above 2685.  Target 2585.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Looking a little tired as gentle trend line support is broken and momentum no longer bullish.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped myself out on the break below the trend line for a small loss.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Painfully slow work and few trading opportunities.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Might go long around 1.2200.

GOLD

Precious metals generally selling off a little, hardest hit palladium because it had been last year’s biggest gainer.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1345; stop well above 1345.  Target 1315.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.