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Market Outlook: Hungarian landslide

Orban’s third consecutive term
April 9, 2018

Sunday’s well-attended general election in Hungary yesterday delivered a resounding win to Victor Orban’s right-wing, anti-immigration Fidesz party.  With an estimated two-thirds of the country’s 199 total seats in parliament, the Prime Minister added, ‘we have won a crucial victory, giving ourself a chance to defend Hungary’.  The leader of the ultra-nationalist Jobbik party resigned as did the entire leadership of the Socialist party, City AM reports.

Global M&A had a glittering start to this calendar year with $1 trillion worth of deals in the first quarter, legal eagles Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer reports.  The Chinese have shifted their focus from the US to Europe over the last year, $10 billion into Europe versus $676 million Stateside in Q1 2018.     

DAX 30

Last week’s large dragonfly doji candle underlines the fact this market is poised on long term key support and looking for direction.  Via conference telephone call yesterday the leaders of Deutsche Bank axed CEO John Cryan and his deputy Christian Sewing (who joined the bank as a teenager in 1989) will fill his shoes.  The other deputy, Marcus Schenk is also leaving.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 11800; stop above 12400.  Target 9500.

FTSE 100

Another large weekly range as we hover at the bottom of what looks like a broadening top pattern. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Though holding just above February’s low, consolidation of the last fortnight has remained clearly below the trend line and the MACD is bearish still.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 2675; stop above 2685.  Target 2585.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

So little momentum and the Sino-American trade war has descended (predictably) into a war of words.  Meanwhile petrol prices at pumps in the USA are close to their highest levels in years, ahead of the ‘driving season’ (summer holidays).

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Painfully slow work and few trading opportunities.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New small long at 1.2250; stop below 1.2150.  Target 1.2450.

GOLD

Didn’t quite reach our downside target last week – so we’ll be patient.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1345; stop well above 1345.  Target 1316.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.