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Market Outlook: Chinese price rises slow

Producer, Consumer and Core
April 11, 2018

March data for China’s price rises were released this morning and came in below February’s and below forecasts.  Producer prices rose in the year to end-March at 3.1 per cent from 3.7 per cent the previous one, a 17-month low.  Consumer prices dropped by 1.1 per cent during the month of March taking the annualised rate down to 2.1 per cent from 2.9 per cent in February.  Core consumer prices, which strip out volatile items like fresh food and energy, rose by 2 per cent Y/Y versus 2.5 per cent in February.

Donald Trump has cancelled his appearance at the Summit of the Americas in Lima, Peru, this Friday.  His Defence Secretary James Mattis has also cancelled a trip to California the same day so that he’s in Washington with the President.     

DAX 30

Retracing and stalling at a Fibonacci 38 per cent of this year’s fall from a record high.  Watching the commodity channel index to gauge whether to re-sell.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 11800; stop above 12400.  Target 9500.

FTSE 100

The commodity channel index is flashing a bearish warning but candles and chart patterns show no current signs of the latest bounce flagging. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Going nowhere despite breathless accounts in the media.  Facebook’s Zuckerberg’s 5-hour grilling and the only thing that seems to have been achieved is proving that, as is so often the case, US Congressmen are out of touch.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 2675; stop above 2685.  Target 2585.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Momentum might turn bullish as cable has a little spring in its step.  This despite warnings yesterday from the Bundesbank that UK financial institutions should prepare for a no-deal Brexit.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Looking to go long on a successful break higher.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Rallying neatly from trend line support as we had hoped.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small long at 1.2250; stop well below 1.2300.  Target 1.2450.

GOLD

Kicking myself for not taking profits as trading this year’s tiny range doesn’t get any easier.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1345; stop well above 1345.  Target 1316.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.