Published yesterday and covering the European Central Bank’s meeting on the 7 & 8th March the minutes noted that all members expressed ‘widespread concern’ that trade-wars ‘could be expected to have an adverse impact on activity for all countries involved’. They also said financial conditions had deteriorated despite better economic growth, that volatility in the FX market was a problem, and that the strong euro ‘could be expected to have a more negative impact on inflation’. Therefore, they will continue their bond-buying operation, reports City AM.
For a second consecutive day, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority was forced to buy Honk Kong dollars. Reaching its maximum permitted trading band at HK$7.85 to the US dollar this morning (minimum is HK$7.75), they stepped in and sold $311 million to buy HK$2.44 billion, the Financial Times reports, making a total HK$3.26 billion bought this week.
DAX 30
Nothing to add following yesterday’s inside day as we stall at the Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement of this year’s fall from a record high.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out of yesterday’s new short position this morning.
POSITION TAKER: Nasty realised loss this morning as I stop myself out of a short position I’ve been nursing for too long.
FTSE 100
Stopped dead in its tracks, just under the 50 per cent retracement level, as the commodity channel index dips a little lower.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
Very unusual price action.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 2675; stop above 2685. Target 2585.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Cable’s very close to this year’s high – and where we were before the referendum result – and sterling’s at £0.8650 to the euro, its strongest since June last year. Published this morning the latest business leaders survey by the Institute of Directors finds that confidence among them is at its highest reading in a year and higher than March last year when the PM triggered Article 50.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Will go long again if we close above 1.4200 this evening.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Looking at this chart, where the euro has held all this year inside a 3 cent band, I’m surprised to hear that the ECB is worried about FX volatility.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Will be closing my long position at a small profit ahead of this weekend.
GOLD
Any munchkin can see that Wednesday’s move was an utter shamble.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.
