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Market Outlook: China GDP data

Exactly as expected
April 17, 2018

We’ve become accustomed to it: Q1 GDP data released in China today – the first country to do so and well ahead of other G20 countries – was bang on official estimates at 6.8 per cent annualised, the maintaining Q4’s rate of economic growth.  Fixed asset investment grew at 7.5 per cent, down from 7.9 per cent a year ago, while retail sales grew by 10.1 per cent in March.  However, industrial production dropped to a Y/Y rate of 6 per cent in February from 7.2 per cent the previous month.

Never on to shy away from publicity or controversy, Tim Martin, founder of pub group JD Wetherspoon, said he would shut down all their pub’s Twitter, Instagram and Facebook pages.  This follows a hacking incident in 2015 which prompted them to delete all client data.  ‘It didn’t do our trade any harm at all.  It saves people in the company time and that will enable them to get on with our jobs’.

DAX 30

Retreating just ahead of the late February interim high and the commodity channel index looks set to turn down.  

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New small short at 12430; stop above 12650.  Target 12000.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Another sell-off from the 7300 area has triggered a sell signal on the commodity channel index. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7255; stop well above 7320.  Target 7000.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Only today has momentum turned bullish – and even then it might all fizzle out later in the day.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 2675; stop above 2685.  Target 2585.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 2665; stop above 2700.  First target 2560.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

When even the BBC reports on the value of cable in its main news bulletin you know we’re either at levels we haven’t seen in ages or that few had expected.  Now let’s see how long it will take for the current meme about a weak pound causing exports and inflation to rise to get scotched.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New long at yesterday’s close at 1.4335; stop below 1.4150.  Target 1.5000.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.4220; stop below 1.4135.  Target 1.4450.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Limping up in sympathy with cable.  Today President Macron addresses Strasbourg so let’s see what his grand vision for the EU looks like.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Thinking of going long on a weekly close above 1.2500.

GOLD

Warmongering, missile attacks, sanctions and a weaker dollar and still gold prices struggle at the 1350 area.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 1342; stop above 1360.  Target 1320.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.