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Market Outlook: Win some, lose some

The bookmakers’ week
May 17, 2018

Earlier this week the US Supreme Court ruled that individual states could decide whether to allow betting on sports events.  This was seen as an excellent opportunity for UK and Irish bookies to help set op ventures in America.  This morning the British government has decided to slash the amount gamblers can place on fixed odds betting machines, from £100 to £2 – a move that the industry has lobbied against strongly.

Yesterday UK Transport minister Chris Grayling bowed to the inevitable and re-nationalised the ailing East Coast railway line.  In its latest incarnation, it was a loss-making joint venture between Virgin Trains and Stagecoach who bid for the contract with another set of over-optimistic assumptions.  An ‘operator of last resort’ will take over formally on June 24th when the old LNER livery will return to the line.

DAX 30

Ridiculously small ranges and still overbought.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Stopped just shy of the record high and stupidly overbought. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   New small short at 7715; stop above 7800.  First target 7200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7700; stop well above 7800.  Target 7000.

S&P 500

Momentum is not very convincing as we appear to be attempting to put in another intermediate interim high.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2725; stop above 2755.  Target 2625.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Slow and rather hard work as the market tries to form a rounded bottom against Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement support and the 50-day moving average.  Today PM Theresa May has the pleasure of meeting her other 27 EU peers in Sofia, Bulgaria.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.3545; stop below 1.3400.  Target 1.4100.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small long at 1.3565; stop below 1.3400.  Target 1.4300.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Trendline resistance now acting as support to form a dragonfly doji yesterday.  Still oversold and struggling in the face of protracted discussions among Italian MPs with little track record.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of my long position yesterday.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.1910; stop below 1.1790.  Target 1.2300.

GOLD

Precious metals surprisingly weak against a background of quickly shifting political dialogue.  Now moving into an area with little technical support until 1240. 

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.