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Market Outlook: Aussie rules!

Keeps on chugging along
June 6, 2018

Data out this morning showed that the Australian economy saw GDP growth in the first quarter of 1 per cent, equivalent to an annualised rate of 3.1 per cent.  Impressive by European standards, and better than forecasts, it marks the beginning of a 27th consecutive year of positive numbers – and no hint of recession.

Tesco Bank admitted that yesterday in the UK, between 10:30 am and 2:30 pm, there was a computer outage which meant that app and online access to bank accounts was unavailable.  They did not say what the issue was but said it had been fixed.  They also admitted that they didn’t know how many accounts had been affected.  Also yesterday Bloomberg reported that this week the Israeli-based online genealogy website MyHeritageDNA said a researcher found a file containing email addresses and hashed passwords of 92,283,889 registered users on a private sever outside the firm.  In a statement the company said: ‘’there has been no evidence that the data in the file was ever used by the perpetrators’’.

DAX 30

A nasty little dragonfly doji/shooting star candle yesterday has kept momentum bearish and might possibly mark an new interim high.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny short at 13145; stop above 13050.  Target 12400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12935; stop above 13050.  Target 12000.

FTSE 100

Not much happening to this index so the MACD remains bearish.  Can’t think who bought RBS shares yesterday only to find they ended the day 5 per cent lower.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Tiny short at 7855; stop well above 7800.  Target 7400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small short at 7799; stop well above 7900.  First target 7400.

S&P 500

Inching just above the Fibonacci 61 per cent retracement resistance taken from the record high.  The commodity channel index has yet to turn down.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of short at a tiny loss.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Small short at 2720; stop above 2755.  Target 2620.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Momentum trying to turn bullish following yesterday’s close bang on the psychological 1.3400.  What looks like it might be a saucer-shaped base, or rounded bottom, needs a close above first Fibonacci resistance at 1.3485 to complete.  One little step at a time here.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny long at 1.3275; stop below 1.3240.  Target 1.3800.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small long on Friday’s close at 1.3350; stop below 1.3200.  Target 1.4200.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Another currency where momentum is looking to turn bullish following a potential V-shaped base (which complete on a daily close above 1.1800).  The euro might be helped higher by Swiss traders and investors who face a radical referendum this Sunday.  The proposal is for a so-called sovereign money system where commercial banks will not be allowed to create money.  Called ‘Vollgeld’, the minority supporters say it will make the financial system safer.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.1685; stop below 1.1600.  Target 1.2000.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New long at 1.1660; stop below 1.1600.  Target 1.2400.

GOLD

Still consolidating under the 1310 area and I’ve drawn in a little triangle; not sure if there’s much point really, like painting lipstick on a pig.    

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny short at 1294; stop above 1310.  Target 1265.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.