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Market Outlook: Trump, Apple and tariffs

The next round
September 10, 2018

In a Tweet on Saturday President Trump urged Apple Inc. to shift production of all its mobile devices to the United States, part of the plan to restore manufacturing jobs at home.  This would mean that the company would avoid the tariffs coming into force on Chinese goods, something the firm spelled out in detail for the first time on Friday.  The California-based firm employs 10,000 on the Chinese mainland and another 3 million through its chain of components suppliers.  Shares in some of these firms slipped in Asia this morning.

City AM reports this morning on a UK study carried out by Credit Suisse where ‘’this year we find family-owned businesses are continuing to outperform their peers in every region, every sector, whatever their size’’, said head analyst Eugene Klerk.  ‘’We believe this is down to the longer-term outlook of family-owned businesses relying less on external funding and investing more in research and development’’.

DAX 30

Are you getting the picture?  Friday saw the weakest close since March and among the lowest since January 2017.  Settling just under the important 12000 level but above the neckline of the chart pattern at 11875.  As expected, bearish momentum increased considerably on Friday’s close and is at its strongest since March, while the index is not in oversold territory.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New short on Friday’s close 11940; stop above 12240.  First target 11600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 11940; stop above 12400.  Target 11000.

FTSE 100

Dropping every single day last week for the biggest weekly fall since January.  The index has now retraced a Fibonacci 61 per cent of the rally to the record high and is back at the level we started at in January 2017.  The next level to aim for is 7100, a 76.4 per cent retracement and long term chart support.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Re-sold on Friday’s close just under 7300 because bearish momentum had increased considerably; stop well above 7400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Added to my short position on Friday’s close; stop above 7500.  Target 6925.

S&P 500

Less overbought on last week’s small weekly bearish engulfing candle.  Note that other US indices on Friday tested their 50-day moving averages, though the S&P 500 did not – yet.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Edging off oversold levels as cable struggles just under the old trend line.  Some analysts are suggesting that it has become very volatile of late.  Look carefully at this chart and tell me, hand on heart, that this is the case.  Rubbish!

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2925; stop below 1.2780.  Target 1.3275.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Soothing noises from Italy’s finance minister Giovanni Tria all last week may have helped BTPs, but did nothing for the euro.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.1595; stop below 1.1525.  Target 1.1785.

GOLD

A sorry little sight as it struggles under the weight of persistently bearish momentum and very steep trend line resistance.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1195; stop above 1220.  First target 1160.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.