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Market Outlook: Mind the (bonus) gap!

US vs UK bankers
September 12, 2018

In a report compiled by Magic Circle law firm Linklaters the bonus pool for British bankers has shrunk over the last 3 years and now stands exactly where it was in 2008 at £15 billion.  In the US, it has grown from $17.6 billion to $31.4 billion over the same period.  Employment partner Alexandra Beidas added, ‘’you have a scenario where the EU went full steam ahead [implementing financial stability board regulations], the UK gold-plated the rules, parts of Asia just brought in guidelines and the US is still sitting on draft versions’’.

City AM reports that shares in Goldman Sachs fell for a 10th consecutive day yesterday, the first time this has happened since the firm was floated.  Allegedly it is over concerns about investment banking deal flow.

DAX 30

Yesterday’s surprising little dragonfly doji has not seen bearish momentum ease.  Keep in mind that we are currently testing important secular support levels so threats of a fright, a fall, visions and revisions is very high.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 11940; stop above 12240.  First target 11600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 11940; stop above 12400.  Target 11000.

FTSE 100

Another timorous beastie with a dragonfly doji yesterday as we hover at the 7300 level and below the trend channel established since late May.  Momentum remains clearly bearish.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7280; stop well above 7400.  First target 7100.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at an average above 7300; stop above 7500.  Target 6925.

S&P 500

Tricky little chart patterns and I’m not confident at all about any of this.  I feel I’m missing something obvious.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Testing both trendlines with a sizeable doji yesterday.  Today the Financial Times reports that IMF boss Christine Lagarde says her staff say that US-China trade wars are not spreading contagion and investor flight across emerging markets but are confined to Argentina (who has asked and not yet received help from them) and Turkey.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2925; stop below 1.2900.  Target 1.3275.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Will go long on a daily close above trend line resistance.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Can’t believe I’ve spotted another doji!  Obviously, markets are looking for direction.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.1595; stop below 1.1525.  Target 1.1785.

GOLD

A little hammer yesterday has done little to barely bearish momentum.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1195; stop above 1220.  First target 1160.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.