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Market Outlook: Trump takes ten per cent

On $200 billion
September 18, 2018

Yesterday President Trump imposed his threatened 10 per cent import tariff on another $200 billion worth on nearly 6000 Chinese goods; it kicks in on Monday 24th September and will increase to 25 per cent in January.  If China were to retaliate, ‘’we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion [remaining] additional imports’’.

In Q2 2018 Australian house price declines accelerated, dropping 0.6 per cent over the year.  This is the first annualised fall in 6 years and contrasts with 5-10 per cent growth in the intervening quarters.

DAX 30

The series of descending highs since mid-June is intact and the latest bounce sees prices just under First Fibonacci retracement resistance around 12200.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 11940; stop above 12240.  First target 11600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 11940; stop above 12400.  Target 11000.

FTSE 100

Momentum’s clearly bearish despite today’s reversal of most of yesterday’s losses.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7280; stop well above 7400.  First target 7100.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at an average above 7300; stop above 7500.  Target 6925.

S&P 500

Triangle consolidation close to the record high yet bullish momentum just isn’t there at all.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

At last, a daily close above the old trend line and bullish momentum on the daily chart has increased.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2925; stop below 1.2950.  Target 1.3275.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.3110; stop below 1.2950.  Target 1.3600, maybe more.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Re-drawing my triangle slightly and it might suggest that a daily close above 1.1700 would add to bullish momentum.  We’ll see.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.1595; stop below 1.1600.  Target 1.1785.

GOLD

Getting a bit messy as we snake sideways for longer than hoped.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1195; stop above 1220.  First target 1160.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1194; stop above 1215.  First target 1160.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.