Shareholders in Aim-traded Gama Aviation (GMAA:187p) suffered a bout of turbulence over the summer after the operator of privately owned jet aircraft reported a flat trading performance in the first five months of the 2018 financial year. (‘Gama shares hit turbulence’, 5 June 2018). In the event, Gama reported a $400,000 decline in its first half underlying pre-tax profits to $6.6m which translated into a 10 per cent drop in adjusted EPS to 11¢.
One reason for the shortfall was a near 20 per cent decline in operating profits to $3.39m in Gama’s US air division. This reflected investment made in the US sales force in the final quarter of 2017 to support future growth of this fast growing business. This explains the reduction in divisional operating margins to 1.6 per cent compared to 2.2 per cent in the first half of 2017. However, chief executive Maarwan Khalek points out margins would have been closer to 2.4 per cent (last year’s outcome) without making this investment and having done so should “resume their steady improvement towards a target of between 4 to 5 per cent.” That’s a fair assumption to make given that low double-digit revenue growth is being targeted in the US air business. In the first half, divisional revenues increased by almost 9 per cent to $206m.
In Europe, Gama’s ground services division was held back by challenging trading conditions and its operating profits dipped by $116,000 to $4.46m on revenue of $26.7m. Part of the reason was uncertainty over the future of Oxford airport, an issue that has been addressed by moving the bases in Oxford and Farnborough to Bournemouth International Airport. This has doubled engineering capacity, improved the service offering and should support scalable growth. The $2m restructuring cost of the move (to complete in the fourth quarter of 2018) will largely be recouped by rent free periods on its new facility and capital incentives from its new landlord.
I am not concerned about the fact that the Middle East ground services unit’s $210,000 operating profit at this stage of 2017 reversed into a $68,000 loss. This reflected a 10 per cent decline in revenues resulting from political uncertainty in Saudi Arabia. The situation is now more stable. Also, the Middle East air business actually made up that regional shortfall.
Shareholders backed a placing at 245p a share that raised £48m in the spring which means Gama ended the period with $21m (a sum worth 25p a share) of net cash and an untapped 4-year credit facility of $70m priced at 1.9 per cent above Libor. The funds will help support the expansion plans I outlined in my last article (‘Gama shares hit turbulence’, 5 June 2018), as well as strategic bolt-on acquisitions which Mr Marwaan expects to conclude by the year-end.
Around $4.3m of exceptional charges were booked in the first half of which $1.8m related to the cost of litigation which includes both the recovery of money outstanding from clients, and proceedings brought by clients. Mr Maarwan asserts that the overall awards and litigation settlements will result in a cash inflow, and only one major case remains outstanding.
The company is also “trading in line with full-year forecasts” even though 35 per cent of this year’s expectations were delivered in the first half (against a normal 40 per cent weighting). Analysts at WH Ireland are maintaining their 2018 pre-tax profit estimate of $19.9m and EPS estimate of 26.4¢, implying 16 per cent profit growth on 2017. So, with the share price drifting from 206p when I rated the shares a hold during the summer to 187p, this means that they are rated on a forward PE rate of 9. That rating doesn’t take into account an underleveraged balance sheet and potential to make earnings accretive bolt-on acquisitions. It doesn’t take into account margin expansion in the important US air market either, nor for that matter a reasonable dividend (2.75p a share payout for 2017 financial year).
So, although Gama’s shares have disappointed this year, I feel that they are worth holding because if Gama’s management execute on their expansion strategy, and the US economy stays strong, then there should be upside to both profits and the share price. Indeed, WH Ireland still expects EPS growth of 50 per cent in the 2019 financial year, penciling in EPS of 39.8¢ based on pre-tax profits of $32.1m. On the basis of the current sterling dollar exchange rate of £1:$1.30, this implies EPS rising above 30p in 2019 and a forward PE ratio of six. In the circumstances, I would continue to hold the shares.
■ Simon Thompson's new book Successful Stock Picking Strategies can be purchased online at www.ypdbooks.com, or by telephoning YPDBooks on 01904 431 213 to place an order. It is being sold through no other source and is priced at £16.95 plus £2.95 postage and packaging. Simon's second book Stock Picking for Profit has been reprinted and is available to purchase online at www.ypdbooks.com for £16.95, plus £2.95 postage and packaging, or by telephoning YPDBooks on 01904 431 213 to place an order. Details of the content of both books can be viewed on www.ypdbooks.com.
