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Market Outlook: Chinese military bristles

Threat to sovereignty
October 2, 2018

This morning China lashed out after a US destroyer sailed into the South China Sea close to the disputed Spratly Islands and within 12 miles of two Chinese military outposts.  Reuters reports that this is the latest attempt by Washington to counter Beijing’s efforts to limit navigation in what they see as an area where it has ‘indisputable sovereignty’.  In retaliation, Chinese officials have cancelled a security meeting with US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis due this month.

Nationwide house price data for September out this morning show that The North saw even bigger price falls, outstripping those in London which has been leading on the way down.  In the three months to September they fell 1.7 per cent having risen 1.6 per cent in Q2 2018.  London falls slowed to 0.7 per cent, but were a fifth consecutive quarterly decline.

DAX 30

Bullish momentum appears to have dissipated on yesterday’s small shooting star candle.  CNBC reports that after marathon discussions German coalition party member emerged bleary-eyed this morning having agreed on ways to cut pollution in cities yet avoiding unpopular driving bans.  Details are being kept secret.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 12330; stop above 12460.  First target 11900.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

The commodity channel index turned down on yesterday’s close as the market gets stuck around the 50 per cent retracement level.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   New short at 7490; stop above 7575.  Target 7200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at an average above 7300; stop above 7535.  Target 6925.

S&P 500

‘Last night, our deadline, we reached a wonderful new Trade Deal with Canada, to be added into the deal already reached with Mexico.  The new name will be United States Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA’ – as Tweeted by President Trump.  Others called it NAFTA mark 2.  A potential tiny double top at 2940 in the S&P 500.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Momentum turned clearly bearish on yesterday’s close.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Stopped out of my long on this morning’s open.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Watching for signs of basing against 1.1500 as the commodity channel index is suggesting a long position might soon be in order. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Sneaking its way along just under the trend line.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1194; stop above 1218.  First target 1160.