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Market Outlook: ‘’We’re a long way from neutral’’

Said Fed Chair Jerome Powell
October 4, 2018

Yesterday in an interview with Judy Woodruff on America’s Public Broadcasting Service TV, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: ‘’the really extremely accommodative low interest rates that we needed when the economy was quite weak, we don’t need those anymore.  We’re gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral.  We may go past neutral, but we’re a long way from neutral at this point’’.

The Times reports today that a ‘sausage cartel’ has been operating across Germany for years, fixing and inflating wholesale prices.  A court has ruled that this was perhaps the biggest consumer scandal in the country’s post-war history and has fined 22 companies €338 million.  They claim that a ‘small family’ fixed prices over the phone while appearing to be rivals.  The story’s title is: ‘German meat firms ‘’string along shoppers’’.

DAX 30

Stuck under trend line resistance as bullish momentum fizzles out.  Bloomberg reports that German bankers are worried about losing their jobs due to digitalisation; so far 188,000 jobs have been axed.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 12330; stop above 12460.  First target 11900.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Guttering around with Mrs May’s ‘tour de force’ at the Tory party conference having zero impact on the stock market.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7490; stop above 7575.  Target 7200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at an average above 7300; stop above 7535.  Target 6925.

S&P 500

A third shooting star type candle at the record high suggests the index is indeed having trouble reaching for new highs.  A close below 2900 will hint that the move above here was a small false break.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

The daily close below 1.3000, the first in a month, has increased bearish pressure considerably.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Slumping through 1.1500 as some fret as to how Italian banks are going to raise more capital to replace that lost on sovereign bond holdings. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Both momentum and the MACD a mess as we hold above trend line resistance while keeping to the range of the last month.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1194; stop above 1218.  First target 1160.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.