At its annual meeting starting in Bali today, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Maurice Obstfeld trimmed their global growth estimate to 3.7 per cent from 3.9 per cent. This tinkering has been caused by ‘over optimistic’ forecasts in April’s bi-annual report, by Q2 growth being slower than predicted, and because of escalating trade tensions. Estimates for global trade were slashed: originally expected to increase by 4.8 per cent this year and 4.0 in 2019, they are now forecasting 4.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively. Note that there are only 3 months until the end of this calendar year.
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