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Market Outlook: Rumour upon rumour on missing Saudi

Sounds like skulduggery all round
October 16, 2018

President Trump yesterday repeated rumours he had heard that the Saudi citizen missing since October 2nd might have been accidentally killed during interrogation at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.  US secretary of state Mike Pompeo has been dispatched to Saudi Arabia to ‘’get to the bottom’’ of the case.  The 59-year old man, Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post contributor has been critical of the House of Saud lately.  He is also the nephew of Adnan Khashoggi, possibly the world’s biggest ever arms dealer who was reportedly worth $4 billion in the 1970s.

Data produced yesterday by the Trump administration showed that the US budget deficit in 2018 increased by 17 per cent to $779 billion, CNBC reports; this follows the tax cuts Republicans had promised.  This is the biggest gap since 2012 and represents 3.9 per cent of US GDP.

DAX 30

Bearish momentum has been maintained as we consolidate in a little triangle between key chart levels at 11400 and 11720, possibly in a pennant formation where the measured downside target is about 10700.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 11600; stop above 11800.  Target 11200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12100; stop above 12000.  Target 11200, the half-way mark of the rally that started late in 2016 and maybe 10700.

FTSE 100

On this date in 1987 Britain woke up to the ravages of a hurricane: power lines down and hundreds of thousands of trees uprooted.  The weatherman reliably informs me that at least we won’t have to face that today.  Current consolidation in an inverted pennant chart pattern is bearish and has a measured target of about 6500.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7025; stop above 7200.  Target 6400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square but looking to re-sell.

S&P 500

Hopefully we’ve all spotted the recurring theme in these stock indices by now.  The little triangle is centred on the Fibonacci 76.4 per cent retracement support, with a break below the psychological 2700 setting off another swoon.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New short at 2755; stop above 2820.  Target 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Short at 2770; stop well above 2820.  Target 2600.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Hanging on in there despite another Brexit deadline looming.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Clearly back inside the 1.1500 to 1.1800 band.  Today the budget approved by the Italian government is sent up to the European Commission for approval. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.1550; stop below 1.1500.  Target 1.1770.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

 

GOLD

Nudging up another $10 and retracing half of the losses since June, putting us back where we were late July.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.