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Market Outlook: UK pay grows at fastest since financial crisis

Beats inflation at last
October 17, 2018

ONS data out yesterday showed that in the year to August British employees saw their wages grow by 3.1 per cent, but just 2.7 per cent including bonuses; adjusting for inflation the annual rises were 0.7 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively.  Average weekly wages now stand at £462 before tax versus £459 this time last year, and below the £473 of March 2008.  Hardly worth shouting about.

Today Canadian legislation has changed to allow the use of cannabis for medicinal and recreational use; the first sale was in Newfoundland just after midnight.  It is only the second country, after Uruguay in December 2013, to do so.  The rush to invest in firms associated with the product has been growing for months.

DAX 30

Momentum’s still bearish as we scotch the idea of a pennant formation and break back above 11720.  Perhaps it’s an inverted flag.  Messy and trying.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of my short position for a cool 200 pip loss.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12100; stop above 12000.  Target 11200, the half-way mark of the rally that started late in 2016 and maybe 10700.

FTSE 100

Chucked the inverted pennant chart pattern idea and swapped it for a flag.  Momentum is clearly bearish and PM May faces speaking to EU leaders tonight but not joining them for dinner.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7025; stop above 7200.  Target 6400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square but looking to re-sell.

S&P 500

Yesterday’s rally has retraced half of this month’s losses keeping momentum bearish.  Not exactly a strong endorsement.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2755; stop above 2825.  Target 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Short at 2770; stop well above 2825.  Target 2600.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Increasing bullish momentum despite so many obstacles to upward progress.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Back into snaking around randomly mode. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.1550; stop below 1.1500.  Target 1.1770.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Stalling at the 50 per cent retracement level of the most recent leg of this year’s decline and the commodity channel index looks set to turn down.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Looking to re-sell against 1235.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.