Today the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said 41 per cent of members surveyed in October are predicting further drops in house prices over the next three months. Their index dropped to minus 10, from -2 in September, with the downbeat tone strongest in the south and east of the country; the volume of transactions remained flat or negative across the nation. Three quarters of homes offered over £1 million failed to reach their asking price.
Australia’s bank regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, oversees its ‘big four’ which account for 80 per cent of market share and have been plagued over the last few years with accusations of misconduct. Twice over the last three years it has asked banks to boost the capital they hold. Yesterday it did so yet again, suggesting they must increase their buffer by 4-5 per cent by 2023, and are not too fussy how they raise the money. Worth noting that in the year to September 2018 Sydney house prices fell at their fastest rate in nine years, are off by 6.1 per cent, and are predicted to lose another 4 per cent. Economists suggest Australians should prepare for the longest and deepest housing downturn in modern history.
DAX 30
Momentum suddenly turned quite bullish on yesterday’s rally as it has done on three previous occasions in the downtrend since August.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11200; stop above 11755. Target 10400.
POSITION TAKER: Short; stop above 11700. Next target at 10700.
FTSE 100
Holding at the higher end of the last four weeks. But note how the mood music’s changed, with fund managers holding Persimmon shares, and who approved 2012’s pay structure for its CEO Jeff Fairburn, are now pointing to egregious excesses in board level pay packets. Mr Fairburn left yesterday ‘at the request of the company’.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 7080; stop above 7200. First target 6865.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 7095; stop well above 7200. First target 6900.
S&P 500
Bullish momentum bursting to its highest reading in months because all news is good news.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out of a short position for a very small loss.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Wondering whether to attempt at small short as we’ve stalled in the 1.3200-1.3300 area three times already.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
A rather nasty large doji candle yesterday as the market looks for direction. Then again, thrashing around between 1.1400 and 1.1500 also happened (on the way down and on the way up again) in mid-August.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small long at 1.1440; stop below 1.1330. Target 1.1700.
POSITION TAKER: Small long 1.1415; stop below 1.1300. Target 1.1600.
GOLD
Stuck between 1210 and 1240, as it was late July/early August.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Tiny short at 1227; stop above 1240. Target 1190.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
