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Market Outlook: Europe’s car sales off again

Drop 7.4 per cent in October
November 15, 2018

Bloomberg reports that data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association show that delivery of new passenger vehicle slid by 7.4 per cent, adding to September’s 23 per cent slump. According to EY things should get back to normal over the next two months, possibly giving some credence to Daimler and VW’s forecast for a bounce-back in sales in Q4 2018. The emissions scandal and trade tensions are blamed

CNBC reports that the spat between Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade advisor, and Larry Kudlow, his White House economic advisor, have resulted in the former being side-lined from trade talks with China. This ahead of the G20 summit in Argentina later this month where Mr Trump is expected to meet Mr Xi.

DAX 30

Another inside day (with doji elements) sees momentum turn marginally bearish. Keep an eye on Italy to see how it and the European Commission work through the planned budget deficit.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11200; stop above 11700. Target 10400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short; stop above 11755. Next target at 10700.

FTSE 100

Still struggling randomly around the psychological 7000 level and momentum marginally negative. Now we’ve got to get through another day of Brexit minutiae as May slugs it out with her 22 cabinet ministers (and junior ministers and Tory MPs).

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7080; stop above 7200.  First target 6865.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7095; stop well above 7200. First target 6900.

S&P 500

Momentum turning marginally bearish on yesterday’s close.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 2798; stop above 2825. Target 2630.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Neither overbought nor oversold, as we should expect when trading in the middle of the 1.2700 to 1.3300 range since the summer. Remember too that there is a big difference between historical and implied volatility.  The former is what you can see and measure with your eyes – price range over time. The latter is what it costs to insure against the thing you fear – and how much the seller thinks he can get away with.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Settling back above 1.1300 hinting that we are correct in thinking the break below here was in some way a false break.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Because I’m bored with FX, a new small long at 1.1345; stop below 1.1200. Target 1.1500.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Confused today as we bounced surprisingly strongly from trend line support taken from this summer’s low, yet bearish momentum remains constant this morning.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny short at 1227; stop above 1220.  Target 1190.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.