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Market Outlook: UK retailers suffer in November

Footfall slumps
December 10, 2018

Forget Black Friday and average weather conditions. The number of people visiting shops fell by 3.2 per cent on the month, compared to a 0.2 per cent fall this time last year. This is the twelfth consecutive month of declines, the high street, which suffered a 3.8 per cent drop, seeing the biggest fall since April. More worrying still was that the east Midlands took a 6.5 per cent hit, closely followed by the south east which was off 6 per cent.

After it’s shares fell 22 per cent from a record high this year, the social media giant Facebook announced it would spend $9 billion buying back its shares. This is in addition to the $15 billion it had said it would buy last year.

DAX 30

A comprehensive rejection from the 11600 area after consolidating in a sort of inverted pennant formation in the previous 7 weeks. Over the weekend, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was elected as Germany’s new CDU leader. Nicknamed AKK, she is AKA Merkel’s mini-me and unlikely to turn the tide for her increasingly out-of-favour party.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 12215; stop above 11000. Target 10570.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Covered short position at 10700. Now watching and planning.

FTSE 100

Holding above roughly drawn trendline support, taken from the interim low in 2011, and inside the massive broadening top chart pattern. Ahead of tomorrow’s EU withdrawal agreement vote, who only knows how things might pan out. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Covered short and took profit as the chart pattern held.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 6670; stop above 6900. Target 6200.

S&P 500

Reversing the previous week’s rally all too quickly while holding above increasingly pivotal support at 2600. Note that cold weather in the north-east of the USA and now the south-east also, is likely to impact on retail sales.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

If you still haven’t sorted yourself out Brexit-wise, it’s probably too late to start scurrying around now.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Having kept a very low profile during the 4 consecutive weekends of violence in France, this evening President Macron has booked TV airtime to address his subjects. Let’s hope this isn’t going to be another hour-long lecture.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1395; stop below 1.1260. Target 1.1600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

The highest weekly close since the summer as we move towards the half-way mark between this year’s high and low.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.