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Market Outlook: Gloomy Christmas in Europe

Tough all round
December 11, 2018

The ‘meaningful vote’ in the UK’s parliament is not happening today and instead PM Theresa May is scrambling around Europe begging for shreds of help and sympathy – just like PM David Cameron did some years ago, to be met with total European Commission intransigence. In France, protestors in high-viz jackets remain unhappy and some are suggesting they have been infiltrated by Front National supporters. In Sweden, there is no government, attempts to cobble something together since September’s hung election a failure. Italy’s budget negotiations drag on to the very last minute. Unsurprisingly December’s Sentix indicator for the EU dropped to -0.3 from 8.8 in November, its weakest in almost 4 years.  

Unexpectedly, and with immediate effect, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India resigned yesterday ahead of Friday’s rate-setting meeting. When a replacement is chosen, it will be the third person in the post in three years. Government interference is blamed.

DAX 30

Filling the gap created on Monday’s open with precious little follow-through so far this morning.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 12215; stop above 11000. Target 10570.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square and looking to re-sell as close to 11100 as possible.

FTSE 100

Barely attempting a bounce yesterday as we consolidate almost at this year’s low. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Will re-sell on a sustained break below the bottom of the broadening top chart pattern.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 6770; stop above 6900. Target 6200.

S&P 500

Bearish momentum isn’t nearly as strong as one might imagine as the market dips to a new recent low.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Will re-sell on a daily close below 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Trading at 90.5 pence per euro, exactly where we were late August. Cable’s also taken a hit, at its weakest since April last year, and commentators moaning about the levels of implied volatility on short-dated options. I mean, really, what did they expect?

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Struggling a little with triangle consolidation.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1395; stop below 1.1260. Target 1.1600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Holding up rather well at these new recent highs.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.