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Market Outlook: May can sta-a-ay

Just a little bit longer
December 13, 2018

Winning the confidence vote by a comfortable majority, but with over a third of her Conservative party against her, PM Therese May’s off to Brussels today for a planned European Council summit meeting of all leaders. She says she’s determined to get more concessions/clarification/details – call it what you will so long as the main deal remains untouched – from them. 

A second Canadian citizen has been detained in China this week. On Monday, former diplomat Michael King, who now works for the International Crisis Group, was detained and is being questioned with regards to harming state security, Reuters reports. Yesterday Michael Spavor, who runs a firm running visits to North Korea, was detained on the same charges.

DAX 30

Bearish momentum eased considerably yesterday as the market retraces roughly half of last week’s decline – while remaining clearly under first Fibonacci retracement resistance.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 12215; stop above 11000. Target 10570.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square and looking to re-sell as close to 11100 as possible.

FTSE 100

Bearish momentum remains fairly steady as the market retraces a good chunk of last week’s losses, while remaining under triangle consolidation – despite all the shenanigans in Westminster. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 6770; stop well above 6900. Target 6200.

S&P 500

Still struggling below long term trend line (was support and is now resistance), yesterday a shooting star following Tuesday’s doji; clearly a market looking for direction – and despite another $10 billion in share buy-backs announced (Lowes yesterday).

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Will re-sell on a daily close below 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Will re-sell on a weekly close below 2600.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Rallying off the recent low in a half-hearted three-candle evening star combination.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New long at 1.2650; stop below 1.2475. Target 1.2875

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Contained in a triangle, and boringly so. Today left-leaning French political parties have tabled a 10:30 am vote of no-confidence in the government of President Macron; they are unlikely to win considering the size of En Marche’s majority.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1395; stop below 1.1260. Target 1.1600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Sleepy hollow here.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.