Belated US December retail sales data (caused by the Federal government shut down) were so bad that I, as well as White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow’s first reaction was to question their validity. The volume of sales fell by 1.2 per cent, one of the biggest monthly declines on record and, if one excludes vehicle sales, they slumped by 1.8 per cent. Only once in the history of this series has a deeper drop been seen and that was in January 2009.
With his 2019 budget failing to get through Spanish parliament, Socialist PM Pedro Sanchez is likely to call a snap general election this morning; he’s called a press conference for 10:00 am local time (09:00 GMT). The country already has scheduled elections on Sunday the 26th May for local, regional and EU slots. In a highly fragmented and confrontational political landscape, any one party is very unlikely to wield power.
DAX 30
Yesterday’s little shooting star candle has kept the MACD bearish and might increase current very low levels of negative momentum. City AM reports today that in a controversial and secretive move Germany’s Martin Selmayr is now secretary-general of the European Commission – the most senior civil servant of the whole edifice of the EU. The European Ombudsman says his promotion ‘did not follow the EU law, in letter and spirit, and did not follow the Commission’s own rules’.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 11180; stop above 11400. First target 10600.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 10955; stop above 11400. Target 9350.
FTSE 100
A false break above the psychological 7200 yesterday formed a small shooting star which might mark a new interim high.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 7115; stop above 7225. Target 6745.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
Because moves have been so tiny over the last month even the slightest of shifts is having a big impact on oscillators.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Another day and another Brexit defeat for PM May and sterling sees another small sell-off. Same old, same old.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out of my long position for a small loss.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Struggling to hold at last year’s low
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Still holding in a tiny range.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 1317; stop above 1328. Target 1240.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
