Join our community of smart investors

Market Outlook: Chinese shares power ahead

Spurred by tariff delay
February 25, 2019

President Trump, in his customary Twitter messaging style, said ’….productive talks, I will be delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1. Assuming both sides make additional progress we will be planning a Summit for President Xi and myself, at Mar-a-Lago, to conclude an agreement’. No details of exactly what progress had been made were supplied by the White House. Xinhua news agency responded saying, ‘the emergence of new uncertainty cannot be ruled out, and the long-term nature, complexity, and difficulty of China-U.S. trade frictions must be clearly recognised’.

This weekend Barcelona hosted one of the most important events of the tech industry’s calendar: The Mobile World Congress. King Felipe VI of Spain hosted a dinner last night for the event with Catalan Separatist protesters outside blocking streets, burning photographs of the man, and carrying placards saying ‘stop repression’ and ‘rotten Bourbons’.

DAX 30

Inching towards October’s break down level and the neckline of the massive head & shoulders top – on negligible bullish momentum.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Holding at the 50 per cent retracement level at the centre of the huge broadening top that has been in the making since January 2017. Bullish momentum is negligible here too.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Pretty much nine consecutive weekly rallies should sound alarm bells because of the Rule of 8-10. Surprisingly bullish momentum is really not what it ought to be.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2775; stop a bit above 2820. Target 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Will re-sell depending on today’s close.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

A version of a morning star candle pattern over the last 3 weeks suggests a retest of the top of the broadening base pattern is likely, maybe before month-end.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.2920; stop below 1.2950. Target 1.3150.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

No momentum and simply not where it’s at. Analysts at Barclays have warned that EU automakers are likely to lose billions of exports to China if the nation cuts a trade deal with the US.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1305; stop below 1.1300. Target 1.1480.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

A shooting star weekly candle just under established previous highs suggests an interim high has been found. Being overbought adds weight to this view.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1326; stop above 1350. First target 1300.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 1328; stop above 1350. Target 1255.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.